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iovation, the provider of device intelligence for authentication and fraud prevention, is predicting that 48 percent of all retail transactions from Black Friday to Cyber Monday this year will be made from mobile phones and tablets. The company also forecasts that the highest rate of mobile retail transactions will take place between 9 to 10pm EST during the peak holiday season, matching the top time window for mobile transactions during that same period in 2013 and 2014.

“As more people are visiting family, friends and stores on Black Friday, mobile traffic will be higher than on Cyber Monday when they can shop from work or home,” said iovation’s Vice President of Product Scott Olson. “We predict consumers will be making 25 percent more transactions with their mobile devices on Black Friday than Cyber Monday. Just as quickly as we reach the mobile purchasing tipping point during the peak holiday shopping season, consumers will return to their more ordinary shopping habits immediately following Cyber Monday, predominantly transacting from their laptops and desktops.”

iovation made their predictions based on the analysis of the more than 13 million transactions it screens for fraud indicators every day. In recent years iovation has seen the following trends in mobile transactions:

  • 2015—Forty-one percent of all online retail transactions this year have come from mobile devices. The peak time for online retail mobile transactions has been 11am-12pm EST during the workweek and 12pm–1pm EST on the weekends.
  • 2014—Thirty-two percent of all online retail transactions came from mobile devices throughout the year. 37 percent of all online retail transactions from Black Friday to Cyber Monday came from mobile devices. Specifically, Black Friday had 38 percent, the following Saturday and Sunday had 40 percent, and Cyber Monday had 31 percent of all online retail transactions come from mobile devices.
  • 2013— Twenty percent of all online retail transactions came from mobile devices throughout the year. Thirty-one percent of all online retail transactions from Black Friday to Cyber Monday came from mobile devices. Specifically, Black Friday had 32 percent, the following Saturday and Sunday both had 35 percent, and Cyber Monday had 26 percent of all online retail transactions come from mobile devices.

Top Types of Online Retail Holiday Fraud

iovation is also releasing the top types of online fraud it expects over the holiday season. They are in no particular order:

  • Credit card fraud—using stolen or compromised credit card credentials to make a purchase, resulting in a chargeback to the site.
  • Account takeover—when a fraudster obtains an individual’s personal information such as an account number, password, username or social security number and changes the official contact information or adds another user to an existing account.
  • Phishing—targeted messages with the sole purpose of obtaining unauthorized access to sensitive data.
  • Friendly chargeback—when a customer uses a legitimate credit card to make a purchase, but then disputes the transaction, resulting in a chargeback to the site.
  • Shipping fraud—when a buyer spoofs a shipping address or a seller receives payment for goods or services but never ships to the buyer.

“One interesting holiday scam is a mix of phishing, credit card fraud, and return fraud known as triangulation fraud,” said Olson. “That’s where criminals set up a phony online auction for an item they do not have and when the ‘winning bid’ comes in, the fraudster uses a stolen credit card to fulfill an order from an online retailer. The fraudster wins because they receive funds and the consumer wins because they get the item they bid on. But this scam leaves the person whose credit card was stolen to dispute the charge with the victim retailer, and it makes it difficult to track the bad guy. It is critical to leverage device intelligence, transaction insight and consortium evidence to combat triangulation fraud.” 

For more data points about mobile transactions and fraud, go to http://www.iovation.com/mobile.

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